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罗思义:见习近平之前,是什么让特朗普“压力山大”?

2019-06-20 19:32:00 作者: 罗思义 谈论: 字体大小 T T T
我国国家主席习近平和美国总统特朗普将会在G20大阪峰会期间接见会面的音讯发布后,美股大幅上涨。正如英国《金融时报》言必有中地指出:“特朗普方案同习近平接见会面就美中经贸协作进行沟通,推进美国股市大幅上扬。”

罗思义:见习近平之前,是什么让特朗普“压力山大”?

1、  罗思义,人大重阳金融研究院高档研究员

【文/调查者网专栏作者 罗思义】

我国国家主席习近平和美国总统特朗普将会在G20大阪峰会期间接见会面的音讯发布后,美股大幅上涨。正如英国《金融时报》言必有中地指出:“特朗普方案同习近平接见会面就美中经贸协作进行沟通,推进美国股市大幅上扬。”

这对特朗普来说是一个令人愉悦的喜讯,究竟这段时刻一连串坏音讯让特朗普总统“压力山大”——连任民调数据和美国经济数据都不抱负。天然,立博备用网址首脑接见会面要谈的方面触及许多,商洽的细节只要参加商洽的人才干知道,而本文所要谈的是特朗普现在客观上面对的压力。

连任选战伊始,特朗普民调出师晦气

特朗普面对的首要压力是,此前数月直到他6月18日正式发动竞选连任以来,他的民调一贯欠安。竞选“官宣”的数天前,他辞退了五名竞选团队民调专家中的三人,理由是内部民调外泄,而外泄的民调内容显现特朗普在要害州的民意支撑率大幅落后于民主党2020年大选参选人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)——例如,在明尼苏达州和密歇根州,特朗普的支撑率均为40%,拜登的支撑率则分别为54%和53%。

特朗普竞选团队曾对17个州作内部民调,3月份的一项内部民调显现,特朗普在威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州、佛罗里达州和密歇根州等摇摆不定的要害州以两位数下风落后于拜登。而一贯支撑特朗普的福克斯新闻(Fox News)发布的6月9日至12日的最新民调显现,特朗普在全国范围内的民意支撑率落后于民主党人伯尼•桑德斯(40%VS49%)和拜登(39%VS49%)。

1、

民主党2020参选人拜登

归纳说来,宣告竞选伊始,特朗普民调即落后于民主党对手。在这种政治局势下, 2019-2020年美国经济远景便显得对特朗普至关重要。

2019-2020年的美国经济:特朗普给的数据靠谱吗?

关于2019-2020年美国经济远景,存在两种天壤之别的观念。首要,特朗普政府本身,包含部分我国媒体也以为,由于美国减税或其他原因,2019年美国经济将加快增加——这对特朗普来说显着是一个有利的政治音讯。2019年3月,特朗普政府发布的官方预算陈述猜测,2019年美国GDP将增加3.2%,2020年则将增加3.1%——这均高于2018年的2.9%,也契合特朗普的说法,即美国经济在其总统任期内每年至少增加3%。

第二种观念,包含IMF(世界货币基金组织)、笔者和其他人以为,2019年美国经济将面对下行压力——不是经济阑珊,而是美国经济将增加放缓。新出炉的美国经济数据,充沛印证了后一种观念。

包含石油和天然气职业在内的美国工业总产出自2018年末以来停滞不前——到5月,美国工业总产出比2018年12月水平低0.9%。同期美国制造业产出下降1.5%,下降起伏更大。2019年5月,美国制造业产出比11年前的2007年12月水平还低了4.8%。这意味着特朗普复兴美国制造业的方针失利了。

2、

就收购经理人指数(PMI)而言,美国归纳收购经理人指数从2019年4月的53.0大幅下降至5月的50.9,是自2016年5月以来私营部门扩张最为疲弱的一次。同期美国制造业收购经理人指数则从52.6跌至50.5,为2009年以来的最低水平;同期美国服务业收购经理人指数则从53跌至50.9,创39个月新低。

美国工作数据相同呈放缓趋势。5月份新增非农工作75000人,而4月份为224000人,前三个月平均为144000人。

西方剖析师:美国或许堕入阑珊

一些闻名的西方和美国剖析师以为,美国经济放缓将十分严峻,有或许堕入阑珊——至少接连两个季度负增加。比方,彭博社高档修改和英国《金融时报》前首席谈论员约翰·奥瑟斯(John Authers)6月18日在其宣布的标题为《商场呈现阑珊不可避免》和副标题为《不仅仅是债券商场在暗示美国经济将呈现严峻放缓》的文章中指出:

“且不提及美中贸易关系日渐恶化,咱们能猜测未来的商场吗?答案是必定的。债券商场的意向好像是在为某种或许发作的可怕的事做预备,交易员们的确在为此而惊骇。

最新的依据是纽约联邦储藏银行周一出炉的纽约帝国州制造业指数。数据可谓反常糟糕,创上一次阑珊以来最大月跌幅……假如不是预示一场真实的阑珊即将来临,它一般在低位徜徉如此之久。

通常被视为制造业抢先目标的美国货车运送业的状况看起来也好不到哪里去。这是FTR货运状况指数……它归纳衡量了关于货车运送需求的几个不同要素。低于零的数据显现了经济存在萎缩的危险。

工业金属价格也成为了另一个有力的商场阑珊目标。彭博工业金属分类指数(Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex)显现,特朗普政府执政第一年对经济增加的达观心情现已散失。

此外,以美股为例,即便全体商场持续体现微弱,但咱们仍然能看到过往阑珊前常见的一些痕迹……除非投资者持失望情绪,不然他们一般不会大规划买入公用事业股。虽然债券商场有一些技能要素推进了当时的通缩惊惧,但好像的确有许多要素正指向经济放缓!”

美国经济不会堕入阑珊,但会从峰值回归低谷

笔者剖析以为,以为美国经济本年将堕入阑珊的观念有所夸张了,具体原因在我的新书《别误读我国经济》中有具体的剖析。

3、

罗思义新作《别误读我国经济》

2018年美国GDP同比增加2.9%,处于经济周期上行峰值。估计美国经济增速在一年内从经济周期的峰值降至阑珊期的数值——挨近2008年世界金融危机规划的状况不会发作。也尚没有痕迹标明,2019年美国将再次发作自负惨淡以来的更大的金融危机的或许。

相反,2019年美国经济将仅仅放缓,而非阑珊。据IMF猜测,美国GDP增速将从2018年的2.9%降至2019年的2.3%,而笔者猜测的美国GDP增速则比IMF的稍高一点,但IMF的猜测不是毫无道理。美国经济趋势标明,特朗普政府所宣称的“美国经济将增加加快”的说法是过错的。

相反,2019年美国经济增加将有所放缓,2020年美国经济增速乃至将慢于2019年。这对特朗普来说是一个严峻的问题,由于2020年是推举年。

显着,立博备用网址首脑即将在G20大阪峰会期间接见会面的音讯出炉当天,种种痕迹标明,特朗普政府对美国经济状况感到严峻关心。据彭博社泄漏,特朗普政府曾考虑是否有或许走法令程序辞退自己录用的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)——后者是于2018年2月上任,这种行为是史无前例的。这显着预示着,特朗普政府对美国经济面对的下行压力十分忧虑。

4、

在即将到来的G20峰会上,习近平将与特朗普接见会面

虽然咱们没有必要夸大其辞,究竟现在间隔美国总统大选尚有17个月时刻,这意味着特朗普尚有地步改变民调晦气的局势。虽然一些美国剖析师猜测2019年美国经济将堕入阑珊,但如上文所述,2019年美国经济将只阅历放缓,而非阑珊——不过,假如2019年美国经济增加放缓过分显着,2020年呈现阑珊也不是不或许——但这显着对特朗普来说是极为晦气的。即便不呈现真实的经济阑珊,民调和美国经济数据均走低,显着也会给特朗普政府带来显着的压力。

虽然美国经济局势不是仅有的要素,但这显着是G20大阪峰会立博备用网址首脑接见会面的布景之一。

作者注:本文是在习近平应约与特朗一般电话,然后达到两者在G20大阪峰会接见会面的协议之前完结。局势的开展印证了文中的剖析。

本文英文原文:

Bad polls & bad economic data put pressure on Trump US 

share markets rose sharply on news of the announcement that Presidents Xi and Trump would meet at the G20 summit – as the Financial Times simply summarised it ‘Trump plan to meet Xi on trade sends US equities sharply higher’. This was a welcome piece of goods news for President Trump after a period during which he had been receiving bad news both on the opinion polls for his re-election and for the US economy. Naturally there are many aspects of the planned meeting that only those involved in the negotiations will know, but it is worth noting the objective pressures which are now bearing down on Trump.

Negative polls for Trump at the beginning of the Presidential election campaign

The first, and probably most important pressure on President Trump, was that opinion polls leading to the official launch of his re-election campaign on 18 June had been unfavourable for several months. Days before his official relaunch event his campaign dismissed three of his five polling advisers after leaks of internal polling showed the president had been trailing former Democrat Joe Biden in key states which would decide the outcome of the 2020 election – for example in Minnesota Trump trailed Biden 40% to 54% and in Michigan by 40% to 53%. Analysing 17 states, polling taken in March showed Trump trailing Biden by double digits in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. More recent polls on 9-12 June, released by Fox News, a strongly pro-Trump TV channel, showed Trump nationally trailing nine percent behind Democrat Bernie Sanders (40% to 49%) and ten percent behind Biden (39% to 49%).

In summary as the Presidential election campaign was launched Trump was trailing badly behind Democratic rivals. In that political situation, evidently, the prospects for the US economy in 2019-2020 were crucial for Trump.

Prospects for the US economy in 2019-2020

Regarding these economic prospects for the US in 2019-2020 two substantially different perspectives for the US economy in 2019-20 had been put forward. The first, that of the Trump administration itself, echoed by some media in China, argued that due to the US tax cuts, or other reasons, the US economy would speed up in 2019 – which would evidently be good political news for Trump. In March 2019, in its official budget forecasts, the Trump administration projected 3.2% GDP growth in 2019 and 3.1% in 2020 – both faster than the 2.9% in 2018 and in line with President Trump’s claim that the US economy would grow at least 3% a year during his presidency.

The second perspective, held by the IMF, the present author, and others, was that the US economy would experience downward pressure in 2019 – not that there would be a recession but that the US economy would slow. The most recent US economic data has clearly confirmed this latter perspective.

US total industrial production, including the oil and gas sector, had stalled since the end of 2018 – by May US total industrial production was 0.9% lower than in December 2018. The decline in US manufacturing production, 1.5% in the same period, was sharper. In May 2019 US manufacturing production was still 4.8% lower than its level more than 11 years previously in December 2007 - the Trump policy to attempt to strongly revive US manufacturing production had been a failure.

In terms of Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI), the US Composite PMI stood at 50.9 in May 2019 sharply down from 53.0 in April and the weakest expansion in the private sector since May 2016. The US manufacturing PMI in the same month fell to its lowest level since 2009 – a manufacturing PMI of 50.5 vs 52.6 in April, while the services PMI slowed to a 39-month low – at 50.9 at vs 53 in April.

US jobs data showed the same slowing trend. In May the US added only 75,000 non-farm payroll jobs compared to 224,000 in April and an average 144,000 in the three previous months.

Analysts who believe there will be a recession

Some important Western and US analysts believed that this slowing was so severe it indicated the US would enter a recession – that is at least two quarters of negative growth. For example, John Authers, Senior Bloomberg Editor for Markets and former Chief Markets Commentator for the Financial Times, made the following analysis on 18 June under the self-explanatory headline ‘Markets Are Acting Like a Recession Is Unavoidable’ with the subheading ‘It’s not just the bond market that’s signalling a severe economic slowdown.’

‘Would it be possible to explain what is going on in markets without making reference to the deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations? I am beginning to suspect that it would. Bond markets may be behaving as though they are bracing for something terrible to happen because traders are, indeed, scared that something terrible is going to happen.

‘Exhibit A is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Index that was released Monday. It was terrible, showing the biggest monthly decline since the last recession…  it doesn’t drop this low for long without presaging a true recession to come.

‘Conditions for the U.S. trucking industry, often regarded as a leading indicator for manufacturing, look no better…. the FTR Trucking Conditions Index… combines several different factors about demand for trucking. Figures below zero show a risk of contraction.

‘Industrial metals provide another strong market-based recession indicator. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex suggests that the optimism on growth that accompanied the first year of the Trump administration has dissipated.

Industrial Metals Subindex

‘Looking at the U.S. stock market, we see the type of relative performance that would be expected in the run-up to a recession, even if the overall market continues to show robust performance…  Investors tend not to buy utilities on the scale that we have seen lately unless they are pessimistic. There are technical factors in the bond market that have driven the current deflation scare, but there do appear to be a number of factors pointing toward an economic slowdown.’

A slowdown not a recession

The analysis of the present author is that the view that the US economy will move into recession this year are exaggerated, for reasons which are analysed at length in my book ‘Don’t Misunderstand China’s Economy’.

US growth in 2018 was 2.9% - at the peak of the upswing of a business cycle. It would be an extraordinarily sharp decline, approaching the scale of the international financial crisis of 2008, for the US to fall from the peak of a business cycle to a recession in a single year. Conditions for such a repeat of the greatest financial crisis for 80 years, since the Great Depression, are not indicated at present. Instead a slowdown of the US economy, not an actual recession, will occur in 2019. The IMF itself projects a fall in US growth from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019 – I would estimate that growth could be slightly higher, but the IMF figure is not unreasonable. But what such a trend indicates is that the Trump administration’s claims that US growth would accelerate are false. Instead growthin 2019 would fall. And growth in 2020 would be lower than in 2019 – a serious issue for Trump as 2020 is an election year.

Certainly, information which leaked on the same day that the Xi Jinping – Trump summit was announced indicated clearly the Trump administration felt seriously concerned about the state of the US economy. It was leaked to Bloomberg that, in an unprecedented move, the Trump administration had explored if it was possible legally to dismiss their own appointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell – who had only take up office in February 2018.  This was immediately understood to indicate that the Trump administration feared the downward pressure on the US economy.

It is important not to exaggerate. It is still 17 months to the US presidential election. This means the bad polling numbers for Trump can still be overcome – but they are clearly a negative for him. While some US analysts project a recession in 2019, for the reasons given here it is much more likely that the US economy will slow in 2019 rather than a recession occur – although if the economy slows significantly in 2019 a recession in 2020 is entirely not impossible, which would clearly be ultra- negative for Trump. But even without an actual recession what this combination of bad polling numbers and economic deceleration does produce is clearly pressure on the Trump administration.

This is not the only factor in the situation, but it is clearly part of the background to the Xi-Trump summit at the G20.

This article was finished before it was made public that the US side requested the phone call with China which led to agreement on the Xi Jinping-Trump summit. This information is in line with the analysis in the article.1111MicrosoftInternetExplorer402DocumentNotSpecified7.8 磅Normal0

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